A Quarantine Diary - The Great Lock Down

Thursday, 16 April 2019 

The World has changed dramatically in just three months since the Coronavirus start to spread outside Mainland China. This condition is of course has big impact on many sectors specially on world economy. This morning, My friend sent me the World Economic Outlook by International Monetary Fund. I read it carefully to see IMF projection for future economy policies. 

This Covid-19 pandemic has inflicted high and rising human cost worldwide, protecting personal lives and allowing health care system to hope have required isolation, lockdown, widespread closures to slow the spread of the virus. As the result of the pandemic, IMF stated that the global economy is projected to contract sharply by -3 percent in 2020. 

This condition is much worse than 2008 - 09 financial crisis due to subprime mortgage. IMF predicted that the global economy will bounce around 5.8 percent in 2021 in the baseline scenario, which assume that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020. However, there is extreme uncertainty and hard to predict when exactly the end of pandemic, the progress of finding a vaccine and therapies and so on. This morning as well, I read an article in detik.com that the vaccine is the only solution to stop virus spread and re bouncing the economy condition. 

Source : IMF staff 

This table shown the GDP prediction of the year of 2020 and 2021, inflation and unemployment in each Country. Please be noted that this prediction using baseline scenario which assume that the pandemic will fade in June 2020. How is the prediction is wrong? The world will be much worse than the prediction I assume. 

However, compare to other continent, the total GDP of Asia in 2020 (0,0%) looks better than Amerika (-6%) Europe (-6%) Middle East and Central Asia (-2.8%) Sub-Sahara Africa (-1.6%). 

Indonesia itself is predicted to grow around 0.5% in 2020 far behind it initial target around 5% in 2020. And the employment rate will increase around 25% compare to last year. This condition is worsening by the current account balance in 2020 which still in negative condition (Import bigger than export). It's hard to believe that virus may destroy the capitalism in financial market. Currency movements have generally reflected their shifts in risk sentiment.

What lesson learned we may take from the upcoming global recession? 

We try to understand and confess that we, human being, are a small part of the universe. There is nothing we can brag about. There is no different between expensive car and just car as long as it can bring us from one place to other place. There is no different between  living in a palace and small home, as long as we can take shelter. 

Again I remember the book I read last week that quoted from Dalai Lama “Love and compassion are necessities, not luxuries. Without them, humanity cannot survive.”

There is a saying in Tibetan, ‘Tragedy should be utilized as a source of strength.’ No matter what sort of difficulties, how painful experience is, if we lose our hope, that’s our real disaster.”

For me, 2020 is the time to reflect, to kneel, to look inside our heart, to spread love and compassion, and never losing hope. Together humanity can survive from this pandemic and from the global recession.

I wish this is the time the world healing. As Michael Jackson written in his lyric song : 

Heal the world

Make it a better place 

For you and for me and the entire human race

There are people dying, if you care enough for the living

If you want to know why 

There’s love that cannot lie 

Love is strong 

It only cares of joyful giving 

If we try we shall see 

In this bliss we cannot feel fear of dread

We stop existing and start living 

It feels that always love’s enough for us growing 

So, Make a better world